Of the stock market and Playwin

I love the stock market. Especially since I haven’t bought or sold a share in my life. When the market crashes (it’s crashed a few times in my lifetime), I’m Mr. Cool. Doesn’t bother me.

And I watch friends and colleagues, all intelligent people, in a mess when the stock market crashes. And I wonder how they fall for the mug’s game that it is.

At a basic level, when there are so many millions of ‘experts’ on the markets earning fat salaries, why in heaven can’t they predict what will happen?

Why couldn’t they foresee a spike or a dip, a crash or a boom?

They say whatever the hell they want to say. And the investors lap it all up.

Take today. The market has gone up by 730 points (that’s 6.4%). It means the Ambanis and their ilk are a few thousand crores richer than they were when they went to sleep on Sunday night. Their money worked hard while they were sleeping.

And though I haven’t bought or sold a share, I want to know what in heaven’s happening.

So I go to rediff.com and read the commentary on their stocks page:

3:40 PM - Nifty has built a base around 3150-3200, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC-TV18. Book partial profits at current levels and Nifty could go to 3800 levels, he adds. 

3:24 PM - Maintain Nifty long positions with stop loss below 3600 and target of 3750-3820, says Mitesh Thakkar, technical analyst, on CNBC-TV18, as closing market strategy.

3:20 PM - Don't take new long positions, book part profits on long positions and hold rest with stop loss below 3636 and target of 3691-3725, says Rajat Bose, technical analyst, on CNBC-TV18, as closing market strategy

3:15 PM - Book profits in all long positions, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz, as closing market strategy.

3:13 PM - Nifty has seen a breakout at 3650 and now the next target is 3820, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. Avoid going short and buy around 3500 to re-enter this market, he adds. Today is the time to take profits, he feels. IT, banking, power and oil and gas have all seen breakouts, so the market has enough steam to go higher, he says.

3:08 PM - This market is seeing panic buying (from those who felt left out) and underownership continues, says Rajesh Jain of Pranav Securities on CNBC TV18. This is not the time to go short in the market, he adds. The market seems to have a robust trajectory and looks good to cross 3800 on Nifty, he says. For investors, be stock specific and in mood to build portfolios, he adds. 

2:10 PM - Nifty was in the range of 3300-3500 and now it has seen a clear breakout above 3500, next it has resistance at 3650, says MB Singh, technical analyst, on Zee Business. After a small dip, Nifty is likely to rally to 3800 by this week, he adds. 

1:21 PM - The market looks over stretched in the short term, says Sanjay Dutt of Quantum Securities, on CNBC TV18. It is time to book profits, he adds.

1:15 PM - The momentum is with the bulls and this rally could go up further, says Sudarshan Sukhani, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. This is a buy on dips market, he feels. Investors have two options to buy now or wait for correction (if you can bear pain of being left out in case market does not correct) to enter, he adds.

Today, the market went nuts thanks to global cues. So I learn. But we outperformed the other markets in Asia. Why? God knows.

Book profits. Don’t book profits. Avoid going short. Go short. Avoid going long. Go long.

Hope you got all that.

I’m off to buy a few thousand rupees worth of Playwin tickets.