India 2030: Middle class majority to fuel shift to experience-led spending

By 2030, more than 50% of India’s population will be middle class, shifting consumption from necessity-driven to experience-first. Rising out of generational poverty, several middle-class consumers are the first in their families to get educated and to earn early in jobs beyond domestic or unorganised labour.

With the middle class growing, the demand for experiential consumption items like casual dining (+49%) and fine dining (+55%) is expected to soar. While the per capita income in India is expected to reach INR 3.45 lakh ($4000) in 2030, growing by 70% from the current level of INR 2.11 lakh ($2450), nearly 50 crore households in India will belong to the middle class by the same year.

This was revealed in the latest research report titled ‘India 2030: Profiling Growth and Change in the World’s Most Populous Country’ released by a boutique cultural strategy firm, Folk Frequency. Decoding over 30 cultural shifts, the report aims to help brands with trends, analysed in the context of historical and cultural forces that shape them.

Time to shed biases

57% of India’s internet users are in rural and tier-2+ towns, yet ad targeting and content curation still favour metros and English speakers. Because of AI’s inherent bias against regional languages, a huge percentage of targeting is being wasted, as it does not reach the true aspirational audiences in India.

The report observes that more than half of medical students in India are women, and 14% of businesses are now female-led. The transition is seen nationwide—including in the rural areas. 78% of parents in rural India aspire to educate their daughters to graduation and beyond.

In luxury markets, women accounted for 64% of growth in single-malt sales. Products designed for women, rather than adapted for them, will win over consumers. Niche and differentiated products with female aesthetics, handling, and dimensions that feel comfortable and not just ‘not bad’ will appeal to female consumers.

Gayatri Sapru, an independent anthropologist and the founder of Folk Frequency said, "We often paint all of India using the same brush or create distinctions that no longer exist. We must see India as she is. This is a time of great transition. This is not a story of competing 'India versus Bharat'; it's about seeing all parts as they are. If we knew India to be diverse in the past, that diversity is amplified with the spread of technology, capital, and social media."

Role of education

The report finds that India's higher education landscape is transforming, guided by the updated National Education Policy (NEP) 2020. A central objective of the NEP is to achieve a gross enrolment ratio (GER) of 50% by 2035, a substantial increase from the 26.3% recorded in 2018. India’s literacy rate has also steadily climbed, reducing extreme poverty from 22.5% in 2011 to 10.2% in 2019.

More than just economic upliftment, improved literacy is changing mindsets and making consumers more financially aware, brand-conscious, and critical of marketing claims. They now expect transparency, accountability, and improved product and service standards. From the perspective of brands, it translates to a need for efforts targeted at achieving and retaining brand trust and authentic, meaningful storytelling. Nearly 82% of the consumers are more likely to trust brands showcasing real customers and stories, the report states.

A clash of values

With education, exposure, and pervasive technology adoption, the new generation can think independently and follow what they believe is right. A new life stage seems to be emerging between graduation and marriage: independent single adults. Away from family habits and open to new influences, the young single adults are embracing freedom while struggling with the responsibilities of adulthood. The report notes that nearly 23% of young Indians are not interested in marriage—up from 17% previously.

93% of Indian Gen Z and Alpha are key decision-makers in family travel and expect brand alignment with values, inclusivity, and sustainability. Younger Indians are largely growing up westernised through education and social media exposure.

There is a clash of values when it comes to oppression and unsustainable practices in Indian culture—no matter how ancient those may be. Gen Z and Alpha consumers are seen looking into Indian history, joining diverse global fandoms, and standing up for what they believe is right, pushing the culture towards a more ‘rights-based’ inquiry system that strongly punishes the brands indulging in unethical practices or behaviour.

Commenting on the report, Sapru said that there exists a gap between culture, data, and business strategy today. “Many of the analyses today are rehashing what is common knowledge because of lack of depth and rigour. This report is original and rigorous, and offers precise cues on evolving needs, identities, narratives, and positioning to help brands future-proof their relevance,” she said.