Media inflation is expected to drive a 4.6% increase in global adspend in 2024 to $752.8 billion, according to Dentsu’s December Global Ad Spend Forecast.
Digital is forecast to represent 58.8% of the spend, reaching $442.6 billion in 2024, though a slowdown to single-digit growth for the vertical observed in 2023 (6.3%) is expected to become the norm over the next three years (6.3% growth in the years to 2026).
On average, around the world, advertisers will spend $139 per capita on advertising, approximately 75% more than what they spent 20 years ago ($80).
As a proportion of gross domestic product, included for the first time in this report by Dentsu, adspend is forecast to represent 0.75% GDP across the countries tracked, which is consistent with the average observed over the past 20 years (0.70%) in those markets.
Three countries, however, are set to buck the GDP spend average.
For 2024, Japan's adspend is forecast to represent 1.26% of GDP, followed by the UK at 1.23% and the US at 1.13% of GDP.
Growth by region
By region, the Americas region is expected to experience the largest year-on-year growth of 5.8% to $353.1 billion, with digital accounting for 55.9% of spend.
This is followed by Asia Pacific, which is predicted to grow 4% in 2024 to $240.9 billion, with 64.4% accounted for by digital.
EMEA is expected to show the smallest year-on-year growth at 2.7% to $158.7 billion, with digital accounting for 56.6% of spend.
Further turbulence is expected across all markets in 2024 as advertisers expect upcoming elections in the UK, South Africa, the US, Mexico, India and Indonesia, will create an unstable environment for brands.
Dentsu’s survey of advertisers found 77% believed 2024 would be just as turbulent as 2023, whereas 46% said it will be even more unstable.
Will Swayne, Dentsu’s global practice president of media, said: “Despite the current worldwide geopolitical instabilities and economic outlook, in 2024 we can see how significant major political and sporting events are for creating positive growth in adspend.
“But overall spend is just one of the metrics we need to consider, so for the first time, we have conducted a deep dive analysis into market GDP and population as new alternative ad spend benchmarks for our clients.”
(This article first appeared on Campaign Asia)
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