Magna forecasts a 7.7% increase in India’s adex for 2026

The marketing calendar may be free of elections and cricketing juggernauts this year, but India’s advertising economy is far from slowing down. As per the latest Magna report, the total advertising expenditure (adex) in India is expected to grow +7.8% in 2025, reaching INR 1371 billion ($15.9 billion), up from INR 1272 billion ($14.7 billion) in 2024.

The country’s resilient domestic demand, stabilising inflation, and evolving media habits are shaping what may be a pivotal year for advertisers and platforms alike. And while global economic uncertainty persists, India’s macroeconomic fundamentals continue to provide a favourable backdrop for ad investments.

Economic growth sets the stage

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its April 2025 report, projected global growth at 2.8% in 2025. Against this backdrop, India is forecasted to grow at over 6.2% in 2025, with a marginal acceleration to around 6.3% in 2026. While the growth projection is slightly moderated from 2024’s election-year momentum (around 6.5%), the Indian economy continues to show robust expansion potential driven by domestic consumption, infrastructure investment, and a vibrant services sector.

India’s elevation to the world’s fourth largest economy in 2025—overtaking Japan—marks a significant milestone. By 2028, it is expected to surpass Germany to become the third largest. Despite potential trade headwinds and sector-specific pressures in categories such as consumer-packaged goods, Auto, textiles, electronics and tech, the country’s low export dependency positions it well to weather global turbulence.

An IMF report indicates that central banks are now easing monetary policy after a period of tightening in a response to slowing economic growth and aims to stimulate economic activity, pointing to a supportive policy environment. Inflation is projected to cool from 4.7% in 2024 to 4.2% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026, enabling the Reserve Bank of India to front-load rate cuts and inject liquidity into the system.

Adex outlook: Digital dominance, traditional resilience

Magna’s forecast for 2025 places India’s total adex growth at more than 7.8%, with a projected over 7.7% growth in 2026. Hema Malik, chief investment officer, IPG Mediabrands India, stated, “Magna predicts above average ad spend resilience in 2025 neutralising the impact of ad spend on cyclical events in 2024 led by national elections and T20 World Cup. In 2025 Magna expects dynamic ad spend in finance, media, pharma, technology, gaming and retail, while automotive and electronics might lag.”

Digital advertising, which overtook traditional media in 2024 with a 51% share, continues to chart the highest growth curve. Digital adex is projected to grow over 12% to reach INR 728 billion ($8.4 billion) in 2025, while traditional media will see a 3.4% rise to INR 643 billion ($7.5 billion).

According to Malik, long-form video is growing at a blistering pace of over 25% and is 6% of the total video forecast. This is estimated to gain double digit share in the next three years.

Social advertising is expected to become the largest ad format in India and may overtake television within the next five years. This shift signals not just a platform transition, but a shift in advertising logic—one that is data-driven, audience-focused, and performance-oriented.

“The trio of video, social and retail will once again lead the adex growth. Live sports, which were the only Linear TV mainstays, have been upended with more people streaming sports content. Ad-supported streaming experience rapid growth in access, consumption, and advertising sales, as nearly all streaming TV platforms offer more affordable ad-supported plans,” added Malik.

Retail media is also gaining ground, particularly within the digital pure play category. As India’s e-commerce penetration deepens across tier 2 and 3 cities, platforms with strong first-party data capabilities are becoming strategic partners for brands seeking bottom-of-funnel outcomes.

Digital formats: Pure play and video dominate

Digital pure player formats, valued at INR 680 billion ($7.9 billion), are powering the advertising economy with a projected growth of over 11.4% in 2025. Video remains the second-largest ad format at INR 413 billion ($4.8 billion), growing over 4% overall. However, this growth is uneven: digital video is expanding at more than 17%, while linear television is forecast to grow at only above 2.5%.

Together, digital pure play and video now account for 80% of the total adex, cementing their role as the core growth engines for the advertising industry.

Publishing, with an adex size of INR 205 billion ($2.4 billion), will see a modest over 3.5% growth in 2025. Notably, the digital versions of publishing are growing at nearly double the rate of their traditional counterparts. Audio and experiential formats, which make up about 5% of total adex, will grow in excess of 5.9% and 12.9%, respectively.

Media owner revenues and calendar effects

The revenue outlook for media owners is optimistic across both digital and linear platforms. Magna projects a 6% increase in media owner revenues during H1 2025, with a stronger 9% growth expected in H2 2025. However, the second half of the year could also bear the brunt of any global trade disruptions, and while the full-year forecast accommodates a potentially challenging environment, volatility cannot be ruled out.

“Any impact of trade is likely to be felt in the second half of the year and though our full-year forecast accounts for this challenging environment, the situation is still forming shape and there is uncertainty,” noted the Magna report.

Marketers in India are increasingly responding to shifting consumer preferences, especially in the context of digital content consumption and online commerce. With more audiences moving away from linear viewing to ad-supported digital platforms, advertisers are restructuring their media mix to follow audiences where engagement is higher and more measurable.

As marketers sharpen their focus on performance and accountability, data governance and privacy-centric strategies are also becoming more mainstream. The growing regulatory scrutiny in India—alongside developments like the Digital Personal Data Protection Act—are compelling brands and platforms to prioritise first-party data and consent-based marketing.

This shift aligns well with the rise of clean rooms, CDPs, and AI-powered targeting, as advertisers look to navigate a cookieless future while maintaining campaign effectiveness and regulatory compliance.

FY26 and the road ahead

Looking forward, Magna forecasts a 7.7% increase in India’s adex for 2026. While the growth rate remains in line with 2025 projections, the media and marketing industry is expected to undergo structural changes in terms of measurement, media accountability, and audience engagement.

The dual impact of improved economic confidence and continued digital acceleration is likely to sustain India’s adex momentum. However, volatility in global trade, changing consumer sentiment, and regulatory shifts will remain variables that require ongoing attention.

In summary, while 2025 may lack the spectacle of elections or cricket-fuelled spikes, it marks a year of recalibration—where sustainable strategies, deeper audience insights, and responsible media practices will shape the next phase of India’s advertising journey.