Global divide deepens ahead of COP30 as climate optimism wanes in the West

As the world prepares for COP30 in Belém, Brazil, a new Ipsos Global Advisor Survey has revealed a widening gap between optimism in emerging markets and scepticism in developed economies about the future of global climate action. The report, titled Attitudes to COP30 – Public Perceptions and Expectations, indicates that while citizens in Asia and Latin America expect tangible progress from the summit, much of Europe remains unconvinced that the event will deliver meaningful results.

According to the survey, 38% of Indians, 78% of Indonesians and 70% of Thais believe that COP30 will lead to effective outcomes. In contrast, respondents from France, Italy and Belgium emerged among the most doubtful, with many viewing the annual climate conference as symbolic rather than solution-oriented. Globally, nearly half of all respondents (49%) see COP30 as a platform for rhetoric rather than real action against climate change.

The Ipsos Global Advisor survey drew responses from 23,172 adults aged 18 and older across multiple regions. The sample included approximately 1,000 respondents each from countries such as Australia, Brazil, France, Germany, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, the UK, Türkiye and the United States, and 500 from smaller markets such as Chile, Hungary, Ireland, Malaysia, Mexico, and South Africa.

In India, the survey covered 2,200 participants, with roughly 1,800 interviewed face-to-face and 400 online, offering a balanced representation of both urban and semi-urban populations.

Emerging optimism, Western fatigue

COP30, formally the 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, will be held in Belém, Brazil, from 10 to 21 November 2025. The Amazonian city’s selection is highly symbolic. Its proximity to the world’s largest rainforest highlights the critical role of forests in mitigating global warming.

Yet the survey suggests that while public awareness of the Amazon’s significance is high, understanding of COP’s purpose remains low. Only 44% of global respondents correctly identified it as a meeting to negotiate collective action against climate change.

In India, awareness levels were even lower. Just 14% of Indian respondents correctly named Belém as the COP30 venue, with many mistaking Paris, New York, or Brasília as possible locations. Similarly, only one in three Indians (34%) recognised COP as an international forum to discuss climate action. Others associated it incorrectly with cultural festivals, sports competitions, or sustainable product fairs.

“The survey highlights that more Indians are hopeful of COP30 being effective rather than merely symbolic,” said Suresh Ramalingam, CEO, Ipsos India. “Hosting COP30 in Belém, Brazil, provides a critical opportunity for nations to closely examine the impact of Amazon deforestation — from cattle grazing to drought-like conditions — and its role in accelerating climate change.”

Profit over planet

The Ipsos findings indicate a widespread perception that corporate interests continue to overshadow environmental responsibility. Globally, 69% of respondents said companies prioritise profit over sustainability. This sentiment was especially strong in Ireland, Hungary and France, where three in four citizens held that view. In India and Japan, however, opinions were more moderate, with roughly half agreeing.

Despite this scepticism, there is broad support for stronger corporate accountability. About 65% of global respondents want companies to allocate a share of their profits toward climate initiatives, a sentiment more pronounced in emerging markets such as Indonesia, Thailand and Mexico.

When it comes to who should bear the cost of addressing the climate crisis, most respondents believe that wealthy individuals and developed nations should contribute more. Around half of Indian respondents supported this view, compared to nearly three-quarters in Indonesia (75%), South Africa (69%) and Colombia (68%).

Divided priorities and limited expectations

Indian respondents displayed mixed expectations about what would constitute success at COP30. Only 20% said the conference should focus on protecting and reforesting the Amazon or promoting a sustainable economy — the lowest support among surveyed countries. However, 30% of Indians considered financial compensation for environmental damage the primary measure of success, while 17% pointed to halting deforestation as the fastest path to climate recovery.

A small but notable minority (9%) supported continuing deforestation for development purposes, reflecting a pragmatic, if controversial, recognition of India’s economic pressures.

Ramalingam observed that there is a strong call from Indians for greater enforcement against deforestation and pollution, stronger political will, and a clearer prioritisation of climate goals in reducing carbon emissions. “The findings also emphasise the need for multilateral cooperation between the Global North and South — particularly in the sharing of technology and financial support to address the climate crisis,” he added.

Globally, attitudes towards agribusiness expansion were more critical. Most respondents viewed agricultural growth in the Amazon as incompatible with rainforest protection, with about one in two Indians agreeing.

The geography of awareness

Across markets, citizens identified a complex mix of challenges hindering global climate progress. In India, 44% cited weak enforcement against deforestation and pollution as the main barrier. This was followed by inadequate technology (32%), lack of funding (30%) and limited political will (26%).

Other obstacles included the influence of profit-driven industries (20%), low prioritisation of environmental goals in national agendas (17%), dependence on fossil fuels (14%), and resistance from agribusiness sectors opposed to stricter regulations.

The survey found that environmental engagement often correlates with geography and resource dependency. Nations with extensive forest cover or high exposure to environmental degradation—such as Brazil and Indonesia—tend to display stronger climate engagement. Both countries have faced significant forest loss from livestock farming and agricultural expansion, fuelling domestic awareness of ecological risks.

Conversely, nations with more structured environmental governance, such as Japan and Canada, tend to show less visible public engagement with COP activities. Ipsos attributes this partly to stronger institutional frameworks that make climate policy seem less urgent at the citizen level.

A symbolic stage or a turning point?

For global policymakers, the survey’s findings suggest that COP30 faces a dual challenge: bridging the optimism gap between emerging and developed economies, and converting awareness into accountability. The meeting in Belém is expected to revisit commitments under the Paris Agreement, signed a decade ago, and assess progress toward limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

Public scepticism remains high, particularly in Europe, where fatigue from years of pledges and limited progress has hardened attitudes. In contrast, emerging economies appear more hopeful, possibly because they see climate finance and technology transfer as avenues for growth and global equity.

While public awareness of the Amazon’s significance is high, understanding of COP’s purpose remains low, as per the Ipsos survey.

Yet even among optimistic nations like India, enthusiasm is tempered by limited understanding of COP’s function and modest expectations of its outcomes. The survey’s results suggest that climate communication — from governments, businesses, and advocacy groups — remains fragmented and often abstract, leaving citizens uncertain about what these conferences achieve beyond political symbolism.

From awareness to action

As COP30 approaches, the disconnect between public sentiment and policy urgency may prove as significant as the negotiations themselves. Only a minority of respondents globally could articulate what COP stands for, and even fewer could identify how decisions made there translate into national actions.

For communicators and marketers, this gap presents a critical lesson. The language of climate change, often dominated by policy jargon and global targets, has yet to connect meaningfully with public behaviour or brand responsibility. The Ipsos data suggest that while citizens expect accountability from corporations and governments alike, they remain unclear on what success looks like in measurable, local terms.

As attention turns to Belém, the symbolic weight of the Amazon may reignite global focus on ecological preservation. However, the survey makes clear that symbolism alone will not suffice.

The credibility of COP30 — and indeed of climate communication at large — will depend on whether stakeholders can translate declarations into visible enforcement, funding and innovation. The Ipsos findings show that the climate debate is no longer about belief, but about delivery.

For agencies, brands, and communicators, this signals an opportunity and a responsibility to help shift the narrative from awareness to accountability, ensuring that climate action moves beyond the conference stage and into tangible, sustained change.