ZenithOptimedia has downgraded its global ad spend forecast for 2009 from -6.9% to -8.5%. However, it sees India, growing at 7.7%, overtaking Norway, Mexico and the Netherlands to become the 14th largest ad market this year. China is expected to overtake the UK and become the fourth largest ad market this year.
“If one looks at the advertising data by volume, there is a tremendous increase on TV; though while forecasting we had to compensate for the drop in media prices. On the other hand, cricket and election-led advertising was sold at a premium and costs had to be adjusted upwards. The net result is a healthy growth. The heady days of 2007-2008 were exceptional and now the growth rates seem to be back on the trend line,” said Pavan Chandra, MD, West and South and Chief Strategy Officer, ZenithOptimedia India.
“India has not been hit as much as the global economy due to a high savings rate coupled with strong rural demand. As a result most categories have seen a robust growth in advertising expenditure barring real estate, airlines and some financial categories. We expect these categories, too, to show signs of revival in Q3/4 2009,” he added.
ZO sees global Internet advertising growing 10% this year and achieving a 15.1% share of global ad expenditure by 2011. However, it expects newspaper ad spend to shrink every year over its forecast period, falling to 22.7% below its 2007 peak in 2011.
ZO forecasts mild global recovery in 2010, helped by the Winter Olympics, FIFA World Cup and US mid-term elections. North America will continue to suffer its third year of decline in 2010, while Western Europe will stagnate. According to ZO’s forecast, Asia Pacific, Central and Eastern Europe, Latin America and the rest of the world will return to growth in 2010, followed by North America and Western Europe in 2011.
